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THE COMPLETE SIGHTING REPORT OF KENNETH
ARNOLD WITH COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS by Bruce
Maccabee
Summaries of Arnold's sighting report have been published in a
number of books (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9) including his own (10).
Unfortunately these books leave out some of the details that must be
known in order to properly evaluate (and reject!) the explanations
which have been proposed. I, too, do not have space to reproduce
his sighting report (11) verbatim. However, I will present most of the
information so that the reader will have a good understanding of
what happened.
According to Mr. Arnold, at 2:00 PM, June 24, 1947 he took off
from Chehalis, in the state of Washington, in his small plane after
completing a business trip (he sold and installed fire fighting
equipment). He planned to spend about an hour searching for a lost
C-46 Marine transport plane that had crashed in the mountains
west-southwest of Mt. Rainier. (There was a $5,000 reward for
finding the plane.) After searching for about an hour and not finding
anything he turned east toward his next destination, Yakima,
Washington. He was near Mineral, Washington, about 22 miles
west-southwest of Mt. Rainier and Yakima was about 80 miles
ahead of him along a flight path that would take him just about 12
miles south of peak of Mt. Rainier. He levelled out onto his new
flight path he was at approximately a 9,200 ft altitude. His sighting
began within a minute or two of the turn. Sentences and paragraphs
taken from his Air Force letter (11) are preceded by (L) and
statements from his book (10) are preceded by (B). As you read the
following story please keep in mind that this is history. It actually
happened!
******
(L) "The air was so smooth that day that it was a real pleasure
flying and, as most pilots do, when the air is smooth and they are
flying at a higher altitude, I trimmed out my airplane in the direction
of Yakima, which was almost directly east of my position and simply
sat in my plane observing the sky and terrain. There was a DC-4 to
the left and to the rear of me approximately fifteen miles distance,
and I should judge, at 14,000 ft. elevation.
******
COMMENT: The time was about 3:00 PM and the sun was just
slightly to the southwest of being directly overhead (this was only
two days after the summer solstice). It is important to notice how
Arnold's attention was first drawn to the presence of strange flying
objects because his initial observation rules out any explanation
that is based on things in the sky which are not shiny (reflective,
like a mirror) such as, for example, birds. It also rules out
atmospheric effects.
*******
(L) "The sky and air was as clear as crystal. I hadn't flown
more than two or three minutes on my course when a bright flash of
light reflected on my airplane. It startled me as I thought I was too
close to some other aircraft. (B) I spent the next twenty to thirty
seconds urgently searching the sky all around - to the sides and
above and below me - in an attempt to determine where the flash of
light had come from. The only actual plane I saw was a DC-4 far to
my left and rear, apparently on its San Francisco to Seattle run. My
momentary explanation to myself was that some lieutenant in a P-
51 had given me a buzz job across my nose and that it was sun
reflecting off his wings as he passed that had caused the flash.
Before I had time to collect my thoughts or to find a close aircraft,
the flash happened again. This time I caught the direction from
which it had come. I observed, far to my left and to the north, a
formation of very bright objects coming from the vinicity of Mt.
Baker, flying very close to the mountain tops and traveling at
tremendous speed. (L) I observed a chain of nine peculiar looking
aircraft flying from north to south at approximately 9,500 ft
elevation and going, seemingly, in a definite direction of about 170
degrees.
*******
COMMENT: Mt. Baker (altitude, 10,000 ft) is about 130 miles
north of Mt. Rainier. Even if the objects were not as far away as
Mt. Baker the flashes must have been very bright to be visible over a
great distance. This suggests that the flashes were reflections of
sunlight from mirror-like (specular) surfaces, i.e., a polished metal
surfaces. Anything less would be invisible over such a distance in
the bright sky. Since the sun was nearly overhead, some portion of
the object's surface must have been momentarily at an angle of
nearly 450 to the vertical (or horizontal) in order to cause a reflected
sun ray to travel nearly horizontally in the atmosphere from the
object to Arnold's plane.
*******
(B) "At first I couldn't make out their shapes as they were
still at a distance of over a hundred miles. I could see that the
formation was going to fly in front of me. I watched as these objects
approached the snow border of Mt. Rainier, thinking all the time that
I was observing a whole formation of jets. In group count that I
have used in counting cattle and game from the air, they numbered
nine. They were flying diagonally in echelon formation with a larger
gap in their echelon between the first four and last five. What
startled me the most was the fact that I could not find any tails on
them. I felt sure that, being jets, they had tails, but figured they must
be camouflaged in some way so that my eyesight could not perceive
them. I knew that the Air Force was very artful in the knowledge
and use of camouflage. I observed the objects' outlines plainly as
they flipped and flashed against the snow and also against the sky.
(L) Anyhow, I discovered that this was where the reflection
had come from, as two or three of them every few seconds would dip
or change course slightly, just enough for the sun to strike them at
an angle that reflected brightly on my plane.
(B) As they were traveling perpendicular to my path I was in
an excellent position to clock their speed and I determined to make
an attempt to do so. (L) I had two definite points I could clock them
by. (Note: by this he means Mt. Rainier and Mt. Adams, about 47
miles to the south). The air was so clear that it was very easy to see
the objects and determine their approximate shape and size at
almost fifty miles that day. I remember distinctly that my sweep
second hand on my eight day clock, which is located on the
instrument panel, read one minute to 3 PM as the first object of this
formation passed the southern edge of Mt. Rainier. (L) I
watched these objects with great interest as I had never before
observed airplanes flying so close to the mountain tops, flying
directly south to southeast down the hog's back of a mountain range.
I would estimate their elevation could have varied a thousand feet
one way or the other up or down, but they were pretty much on the
horizon to me which would indicate that they were near the same
elevation as me. They flew like many times I have observed geese to
fly in a rather diagonal chain-like line as if they were linked
together. They seemed to hold a definite direction but rather
swerved in and out of the high mountain peaks. I could quite
accurately determine their pathway due to the fact that there were
several high peaks a little this side of them as well as higher peaks
on the other side of their pathway.
*******
COMMENT: These statements about how they flew with respect
to the mountain peaks are very important because they provide
information on the distance from Mr. Arnold. These mountain
peaks lie along a wide north-south line extending southward from
Mt. Rainier to Mt. Adams. These peaks were about 20 miles east
of Arnold at the time. These statements also provide the altitude of
the objects. To Arnold they appeared to be approximately at his
altitude because they seemed to be "pretty much on the horizon to
me." Since he was flying at 9,200 ft, this implies that they were
close to that altitude. (Arnold actually stated his letter that they
were at 9,500 ft.) However, the mountain peaks south of Rainier
generally are 5,000 to 7,000 ft high, with the higher ones being
farther away (more to the east) from Arnold. Hence his statement
that there were higher peaks on the far side of the pathway indicates
that the objects were definitely lower than about 7,000 ft.
Furthermore, he stated that they went behind some (or at least one)
of the lower, closer peaks. Geological survey maps show that
mountain peaks which the objects could have disappeared behind
have altitudes of 5,000 to 6,000 ft. Hence it appears that they were
lower than 6,000 ft and that Arnold overestimated their altitude.
Is it reasonable to assume that he could have made an error of
several thousand feet in estimating their altitude? The answer to
this question lies in the fact that Arnold inferred the altitude by
observing that the objects appeared to be almost exactly on his
horizon (i.e., level with his altitude). But it is very difficult to
determine the exact horizon from an airplane. In this case, the
angle (the "depression angle") between exact horizontal and his
downward sighting line to the mountain peaks south of Mt. Rainier
was very small. The depression angle from Arnold's plane at 9,200
ft altitude to the top of a 5,500 ft high mountain at a distance of 20
miles (105,600 ft) was about 20. Such a small angle would be
difficult to detect from an airplane. So the answer is yes, he could
easily have made an error of 4,000 ft in estimating the altitude of the
objects. Perhaps if he had looked up the actual altitudes of the
mountain peaks south of Mt Rainier he would have revised his
statement.
While Arnold was timing the flight he observed the objects
carefully. According to his letter, " I observed these objects not
only through the glass of my airplane but turned my airplane
sideways where I could open my window and observe them with a
completely unobstructed view. (Without sun glasses.)"
*******
(B) "They didn't fly like any aircraft I had ever seen before. In
the first place their echelon formation was backward from that
practiced by our Air Force. The elevation of the first craft was
greater than that of the last. They flew in a definite formation but
erratically. As I described them at the time their flight was like
speed boats on rough water or similar to the tail of a Chinese kite
that I once saw blowing in the wind. Or maybe it would be best to
describe their flight characteristics as very similar to a formation of
geese, in a rather diagonal chain-like line, as if they were linked
together. As I put it to newsmen in Pendleton, Oregon, they flew
like a saucer would if you skipped it across the water. They
fluttered and sailed, tipping their wings alternately and emitting
those very bright blue-white flashes from their surfaces. At the time
I did not get the impression that the flashes were emitted by them,
but rather that it was the sun's reflection from the extremely highly
polished surface of their wings.
(L) What kept bothering me as I watched them flip and flash
in the sun right along their path was the fact that I couldn't make
out any tail on them, and I am sure that any pilot would justify
more than a second look at such a plane. The more I observed these
objects the more upset I became, as I am accustomed and familiar
with most all objects flying whether I am close to the ground or at
higher altitude. Even though two minutes seems like a very short
time to one on the ground, in the air in two minutes time a pilot can
observe a great many things and anything within his sight of vision
probably as many as fifty or sixty times. Of course, when the sun
reflected from one or two or three of these units, they appeared to be
completely round; but, I am making a drawing to the best of my
ability, which I am including, as to the shape I observed these
objects to be as they passed the snow covered ridges as well as Mt.
Rainier. When the objects were flying approximately straight and
level, they were just a black thin line and when they flipped was
the only time I could get a judgement as to their size. These objects
were holding an almost constant elevation; they did not seem to be
going up or coming down, such as would be the case of artillery
shells. I am convinced in my own mind that they were some type
of airplane, even though they didn't conform with the many aspects
of the conventional types of planes I know.
*******
COMMENT: In his letter Arnold included a sketch which shows
the leading edge being nearly a semicircle, with short parallel sides
and with the rear being a wide angle convex (protruding) V shape
that comes to a rounded point at the trailing edge. His drawing
suggests that the objects were nearly circular overall. He wrote on
the sketch that "they seemed longer than wide, their thickness was
about 1/20th of their width." His suggestion that their width (or
length) was about twenty times greater than their thickness may be
an exaggeration. The sketch he drew of how they appeared"on
edge" has the dimensions 4 mm wide by 45 mm long (approx.)
which suggests a ratio closer to 1/11. (It is typical for people to
overestimate length to width ratios.) Although he did not mention
it in his letter, he later stated (e.g., in his book) that one of the
objects had a somewhat different shape. His book shows an
illustration in which the object has a semi-circular front edge and a
read edge that consists of two concave edges that join at a rearward
pointing cusp at the center of the rear edge.
******
(L) I knew they must be very large to observe their shape at
that distance, even on as clear a day as it was that Tuesday. In fact
I compared a zeus fastener or cowling tool I had in my pocket -
holding it up on them and holding it up on the DC-4 - that I could
observe at quite a distance to my left, and they seemed smaller than
the DC-4; but I should judge their span would have been as wide
as the furtherest engines on each side of the DC-4.
(L) I observed the chain of these objects passing another
snow-covered ridge in between Mt. Rainier and Mt. Adams, and as
the first one was passing the south crest of this ridge the last object
was entering the northern crest of the ridge. As I was flying in the
direction of this particular ridge, I measured it and found it to be
approximately five miles so I could safely assume that the chain of
these saucer like objects were at least five miles long.
(L) As the last unit of this formation passed the southern most
high snow covered crest of Mt. Adams, I looked at my sweep
second hand and it showed that they traveled the distance in one
minute and forty-two seconds. Even at the time this timing did not
upset me as I felt confident after I would land there would be some
explanation of what I saw. I might add that my complete
observation of these objects, which I could even follow by their
flashes as they passed Mt. Adams, was around two and one-half or
three minutes--although, by the time they reached Mt. Adams they
were out of my range of vision as far as determining shape or form.
*******
COMMENT: Arnold provided an estimate of size in an indirect
way: he stated that they appeared to be comparable to the spacing
of the engines on a DC-4 (4 engine propellor driven, 117 ft
wingspan, 94 ft length, 27 ft height) which he had seen at a distance
which he estimated as 15 miles. He estimated the engine spacing to
be 45 - 50 ft, although 60 ft would have been a better estimate. By
this means he was essentially providing an angular size for the
objects: the equivalent of about 60 ft at 15 miles. He reported the
size of the objects as 45 - 50 ft by comparison with the airplane as
if the plane had been at the same distance as the objects. However,
the plane was not at the same distance, so a correction for the
distance difference is necessary.
It is possible to make an estimate of the size of the objects
assuming his estimate of the distance to the DC-4, 15 miles, was
(approximately) correct. (Here comes some math and geometry, so
if you are squeemish about such subjects, skip over the next four
sentences.) Using the outer engine spacing as 60 ft, the angular
size at his estimated distance is 60/(15 x 5280) = 0.00076 radians
or about 2.6 minutes of arc (1 degree = 60 minutes = 0.0174
radians). Projecting this angle to 20 miles, the rough distance of
the objects, would yield a size of about (20 x 5280 x 0.00075 = )
80 ft. Had he overestimated the distance to the DC- 4 (if it had been
less than 15 miles away) the calculated angular size, and hence the
calculated object size would increase. If he underestimated the
distance to the DC-4, then the calculated size would decrease. My
own suspicion is that he overestimated the distance and that
therefore the objects were larger than 80 ft in length.
Unfortunately no investigator pursued this size estimate at the time
and with Arnold's death many years ago it is no longer possible to
improve the size estimate.
Using the dashboard clock in his airplane Arnold measured the
time from when the first object passed the flank of Mt. Rainier
until the last object passed Mt. Adams. The distance from the
flank of Mt. Rainier to the peak of Mt. Adams is about 45 miles
(depending upon where on the flank one picks as the starting
point). Since the length of the "chain" of objects was about 5
miles (paragraph H above), the leading object was about 5 miles
south of Mt. Adams when the last object passed Mt. Adams. Hence
the total distance it (and the others) traveled was about 50 miles in
102 seconds. This corresponds to a speed of about 1,760 mph.
(Arnold intentionally underestimated this speed, saying that it was
1,200 mph or more, which was still faster than any aircraft of the
day. Chuck Yaeger was the first person to "break" the "sound
barrier" at about 700 mph several months after Arnold's sighting.)
Arnold estimated that he had the objects in view for a total of
about 2.5 to 3 minutes, during which time they may have traveled
80 to 90 miles, from a location about 30 or 40 miles north of Mt.
Rainier where Arnold first saw them (not from the 100 miles
distance of Mt. Baker, as Arnold had thought) to some distance
south of Mt. Adams, where they disappeared from view.
When Arnold landed at Yakima, Washington, he told some of
the people at the airport about these amazing high speed aircraft.
*******
(L) When I landed at Yakima, Washington airport I described
what I had seen to my very good friend Al Baxter, who listened
patiently and was very courteous but in a joking way didn't believe
me.
******
COMMENT: Arnold then left the airport to fly to Pendleton,
Oregon on a business trip. The discussion of his sighting
presumably would have ended in Yakima if it hadn't been for the
fact that someone at the airport contacted the press to report that
some new, high speed aircraft had been sighted. When Arnold
arrived at Pendelton he was surprised to find a number of reporters
eager to learn about the new aircraft. Arnold told them about the
sighting and his (under)estimated speed of 1,200 mph. He then
described how they flew: they wobbled and flipped, like saucers
skipping on the water. A reporter, hearing the description, coined a
name for the new aircraft, a name which we have been stuck with
ever since: FLYING SAUCERS.
*******
(L) I did not accurately measure the distance between these
two mountains (Note: Rainier and Adams) until I landed at
Pendleton, Oregon, that same day where I told a number of pilot
friends of mine what I had observed and they did not scoff or laugh
but suggested they might be guided missiles or something new. In
fact several former Army pilots informed me that they had been
briefed before going into combat overseas that they might see objects
of similar shape and design as I described and assured me that I
wasn't dreaming or going crazy. .....A former Army Air Forces
pilot ...(told me)..."What you observed, I am convinced, is some type
of jet or rocket propelled ship that is in the process of being tested
by our government or even it could possibly be by some foreign
government."
EXPLANATIONS OFFERED FOR KENNETH ARNOLDS
SIGHTING
The official Air Force explanation is that Arnold saw a mirage.
Having read the previous material you may wonder how the Air
Force could justified that explanation. The answer is not
straightforward. Initially the Air Force intelligence officers who
were collecting saucer reports treated the sightings, including
Arnold's, seriously. This was, at least in part, a result of the fact
that a number of Air Force pilots reported seeing flying saucers.
Arnold's sighting was included as unexplained in the Top Secret
intelligence memorandum (3). However, in the fall of 1948
General Hoyt Vandenburg rejected the conclusion expressed in the
"Estimate of the Situation" that saucers were interplanetary
vehicles. The only alternative, that the Russians had made
immense improvements on German aircraft developed during WWII
and were flying their new aircraft over the United States, was too
much for the intelligence analysts to accept. Therefore they had no
alternative but to explain each sighting in some conventional way.
The "urge to explain" carried over into Projects Sign and Grudge.
Explanations for Arnold's sighting were proposed by two
scientists with close connections to the Air Force project. Their
explanations have had the most impact on the final Air Force
evaluation of the sighting. These skeptical scientists were Dr. J.
Allen Hynek and Dr. Donald Menzel. Dr. Hynek, a professor at
Ohio State University and then at Northwestern University, was the
astronomy consultant to the Air Force's UFO projects starting with
Project Sign in 1948 and continuing through the end of Project
Blue Book in 1969. Although his specialty was astronomy he was
asked to suggest explanations for all types of sightings. Dr. Menzel
was an astrophysicist and director of the Harvard Observatory
during the same time period. Dr. Hynek, who died in 1986,
reversed his skeptical stance toward UFO reports in the late 1960's
and, in 1973, founded the Center for UFO Studies, headquartered
in Chicago, Illinois. Dr. Menzel, who died in 1976, never
retreated from his published opinion that all sightings by credible
observers could be explained, many as meteorological phenomena.
In 1948 Dr. Hynek (who was not aware of the Top Secret Air
Intelligence Report (3)) was hired to analyze sightings and to
decide which ones could be catagorized as misidentified
astronomical phenomena. As a "side benefit" to the Air Force he
also gave his opinion on the other sightings, including Arnold's.
(9)
Hynek began his analysis of the sighting by assuming that at
least part of what Arnold said was true: that Arnold could see the
overall shape of the objects, that he could see them edge-on, and
that he thought their width was about twenty times greater than their
thickness. Hynek decided to try to calculate their size based on the
basic visual capabilities of the human eye. He pointed out that the
angular resolution of the human eye is typically about 3 minutes of
arc (1 minute of arc = 1/60 of a degree = 0.00029 radians; the
angular size of the moon is about 1/2 degree or about 30 minutes
of arc). He then argued that if the angular size, i.e., thickness, were
substantially less than this then Arnold couldn't have seen them.
Hence, Hynek concluded that the thickness must have been at least
3 minutes of arc which is about one tenth of the apparent size of
the moon. Hynek calculated that this angular size corresponds to a
thickness of about 100 feet at the greatest distance estimated by
Arnold, 25 miles. Therefore, if Arnold's 20:1 ratio of length to
thickness were correct, then the objects were about about 2,000 ft
long, a size that seemed to Hynek to be just too ridiculously large.
But Arnold had estimated that the objects were the size of
fighter aircraft with typical lengths of 40 to 50 ft. Aha, said
Hynek...a contradiction! There is an error somewhere. Hynek
calculated that, if, indeed, they had been this short then they would
have been too small for Arnold to see any details. Furthermore, if
the 20:1 ratio were correct, they would have been too thin to see
edge-on if 25 miles away. Thus Hynek noted an inconsistency in
Arnold's report: if the objects' size and distance were as estimated
by Arnold he could not have seen any details of their shape
because he could not have been seen them at all!
Hynek decided to resolve the inconsistency by ignoring both
Arnold's distance and size estimates. Instead, Hynek argued that if
the objects were a more reasonable size, say, the size of the largest
known aircraft, roughly 400 ft long and 30 feet high, then they must
have been much closer to Arnold in order for them to be seen "edge on."
Hynek estimated their distance at 6 miles. At this distance the
aircraft could appear (from the position of Arnold's plane) to travel
past Mt. Rainier and then past Mt. Adams in 102 seconds if their
speed were only about 400 mph. Hynek concluded as follows: "in
view of the above (calculations) it appears probable" that Arnold
saw "some sort of known aircraft."
If you reread the above analysis you will see that Hynek
explained Arnold's sighting by assuming the objects were the size
of ordinary large aircraft and then concluding that the objects
probably were ordinary aircraft. Clever!
As a result of Hynek's discussion of the discrepancy between
Arnold's estimates of the distance and size of the objects, the Air
Force officers who wrote the final report of Project Grudge in the
spring of 1949 decided that "the entire report of this incident is
replete with inconsistencies" and cannot bear even superficial
examination." (9)
So, what about Hynek's argument that the objects would have
been too thin to be visible, based on his claim that the human eye
can't see something smaller than 3 arc minutes in angular size?
Does it make any sense at all? The answer to this question is no,
and it comes in two parts. First, the fact is that many people can
"see" objects smaller than 3 arc minutes in angular size, especially
if they are larger than this in one dimension (e.g., like a long
cylinder viewed from the side). The second part of the answer
comes directly from Arnold's report to the Air Force. Although it
would have been "nice" if Arnold could have taken an eye test to
provide Hynek with actual visual acuity data, the fact is that some
information in his report, information that Hynek ignored, provides
us with a clue as to Arnold's visual acuity. He said he was able to
see a DC-4 at 15 miles (estimated distance) and he compared the
spacing of the engines on the plane with the apparent size of the
saucers. With its visible height of about 23 ft, the vertical angular
size of the DC-4 at that distance was about 0.00034 radians or about
1 arc minute. (Even if Arnold overestimated the distance and it was
really 10 miles away then vertical angular size would still have
been less then 2 arc minutes.) Hence, by Hynek's criterion, Arnold
should not have been able to see the DC-4, and certainly he
wouldn't have been able to see the engines and thereby to see the
spacing of the engines. But Arnold said that he did see the airplane
and its engines and Hynek did not dispute that statement.
Therefore Hynek's objection...the "inconsistency"... must be
rejected.
Had Dr. Hynek tested his hypothetical explanation - "known
aircraft" - against the information in Arnold's report he might have
rejected his own explanation. To test Hynek's explanation assume
that the unknown objects were ordinary large aircraft six miles away
and ask the following question: why wasn't Arnold able to identify
them, to see their engines, tails, wings, etc., even though Arnold
was able to identify another aircraft that was about 15 miles away?
Evidently Hynek did not notice the inconsistency in his own
analysis. Had Hynek done what skeptics usually fail to do, that is,
to thoroughly test his suggested explanation against the data, he
would have seen that his hypothetical solution failed.
It is amusing to imagine what would have happened if Hynek
had accepted Arnold's distance estimate. Then he would have been
forced to accept the high velocity (about 1,700 mph), in which case
it is conceivable that the early history of the UFO subject would be
different from what actually occurred. But instead, Hynek, for
"good scientific reasons", I presume, chose to take the road more
traveled by...to reject important parts of Arnold's sighting...and that
has made all the difference (with apologies to Robert Frost!). The
handwriting was on the wall, but Hynek looked the other way.
Dr. Hynek's work was done secretly for the Air Force and his
discussion of Arnold's sighting was not published, although his
conclusion was mentioned in the "Project Saucer" report published
by the Air Materiel Command at Wright Field (now Wright-
Patterson Air Force Base) on April 27, 1949. Few civilian
scientists had access to Air Force files and so there was no dispute
of Hynek's analysis until Dr. Donald Menzel decided to write about
Arnold's sighting in his first book on UFOs20, which was
published in 1953. This was the first flying saucer book by a
scientist and, because of his stature in the field of astrophysics, it
was treated very seriously. It received favorable reviews, although
there were some atmospheric scientists who questioned Menzel's
use of weather phenomena to explain sightings. Libraries and
scientific organizations throughout the United States and in other
countries ordered the book and it became the main reference for
scientists in the following years. In retrospect this is unfortunate
since, as I will demonstrate, Menzel did not provide accurate
descriptions of the sightings and he apparently slanted the data as
necessary to make his explanations fit, beginning with Arnold's
sighting.
Although he was an avowed skeptic, Menzel criticized the Air
Force for accepting Hynek's explanation. He gave a brief
description of Arnold's sighting and mentioned Arnold's estimate of
distance and total sighting duration (3 minutes). Menzel wrote, "He
clocked the speed at about 1,200 miles an hour, although this
figure seems inconsistent with the length of time that he estimated
them to be in view. From his previous statement they could scarcely
have traveled more than 25 miles during the three minutes that he
watched. This gives about 500 miles an hour, which is still a
figure large enough to be startling.." Menzel did not tell the reader
that Arnold had timed the flight of the objects between two points.
Instead, Menzel substituted a travel distance which he got out of
"thin air," 25 miles, and implied that this distance was covered in 3
minutes (180 seconds). Hence he was able to assign a much lower,
although "startling," speed of 500 mph.
Menzel went on to "solve" the mystery of Arnold's sighting:
"Although what Arnold saw has remained a mystery until this day,
I simply cannot understand why the simplest and most obvious
explanation of all has been overlooked.... the association of the
saucers with the hogback (of the mountain range).... serves to fix
their distance and approximate size and roughly confirms Arnold's
estimate of the speed." (my emphasis; note that Menzel, unlike
Hynek, accepted Arnold's distance estimate). Menzel then went on
to suggest that Arnold saw "billowing blasts of snow, ballooning
up from the tops of the ridges" caused by highly turbulent air along
the mountain range. According to Menzel, "These rapidly shifting,
tilting clouds of snow would reflect the sun like a mirror...and the
rocking surfaces would make the chain sweep along something like
a wave, with only a momentary reflection from crest to crest."
This first explanation by a scientist with the reputation of Dr.
Menzel may seem slightly convincing, but only until one realizes
that (a) the sighting occurred at 3:00 PM when the sun was high in
the sky and somewhat west of Arnold, (b) snow cannot reflect light
rays from the overhead sun into a horizontal direction "like a
mirror" to create the very bright flashes that Arnold reported, (c)
there are no 1,200 mph or even 500 mph winds on the surface of the
earth to transport clouds of snow (fortunately!), (d) there are no
winds that would carry clouds of snow all the way from Mt.
Rainier to Mt. Adams (Arnold saw the objects pass Mt. Adams
before they were lost to his view), (e) Arnold flew south of Mt.
Rainier minutes later and surely his plane would have been
strongly buffeted (and perhaps destroyed!) by such high winds, but
he reported, instead, very calm conditions, (f) an atmospheric
oscillation wave can't bend or reflect light over an angle of nearly
900, which would be necessary to make it appear as if the sun had
been reflected by objects nearly at Arnold's altitude, and (g) an
atmospheric oscillation wave with a "phase velocity" of 1,200 mph
is unlikely, but in any case, when traveling southward its crests
would be oriented east-west, so if it reflected any sunlight at all
(highly unlikely), the reflection would be in the north-south
direction and not westward toward Arnold's plane. Furthermore,
even if such amazing atmospheric phenomena had occurred, it is
difficult to imagine how Arnold could have failed to realize that he
was just seeing snow blowing from the mountain tops, especially
since he flew over the mountains about 12 miles south of Mt.
Rainier on his way east just a few minutes after the sighting.
In case the first explanation wasn't sufficiently convincing,
Menzel offered "another possibility:" he suggested that perhaps
there was a thin layer of fog, haze or dust just above or just below
Arnold's altitude which was caused to move violently by air
circulation and which reflected the sunlight.20 Menzel claimed
that such layers can "reflect the sun in almost mirror fashion."
Menzel offered no substantiation for this claim. Perhaps he was
thinking in terms of a "reflection" from an atmospheric layer when
the sun is so low on the horizon that the light rays make a "grazing
angle" with the layer. If so, then that explanation as applied to the
Arnold sighting makes no sense since the sun was almost overhead
(and slightly behind) Arnold. Furthermore, layers form under
stable conditions and violent air circulation would tend to break
them up so there would be no "reflections" of sunlight. Again, one
wonders how Arnold could have failed to notice that he was just
seeing the effects of a haze layer.
Ten years after his first book, Dr. Menzel offered his third,
fourth and fifth explanations in his second book (written with Lyle
Boyd): mountain top mirages, "orographic clouds" and "wave
clouds in motion". To support the third explanation he presented a
photograph of mountain top mirages taken by a photographer many
years earlier, and proposed by the photographer, as the explanation
for Arnold's sighting. The mirages appear as vague images above the
tops of the mountains. (Actually the mirage is an inverted image of
the top of the mountain.) These mirages can be seen under proper
atmospheric conditions (requiring a stable atmosphere) when the
line of sight from the observer to the mountain top is tilted by no
more than one half of a degree above or below horizontal.
Unintentionally (or intentionally?) Menzel failed to report in his
book the following information in Arnold's report: as they traveled
southward he saw them silhouetted against the side of Mt. Rainier
which is 14,400 ft high, much higher than the altitude of the
saucers. Since mountain top mirages occur above the mountain
peaks these objects were far below any mirage of Mt. Rainier. Of
course, mountain top mirages stay above the tops of the mountains,
so the mirage theory cannot explain the lateral high speed movement
of the objects reported by Arnold.
Menzel's fourth explanation was that Arnold saw orographic
clouds which can assume circular shapes and often form in the lees
(i.e., downwind of) mountain peaks. The clouds would, of course,
be large but, as Menzel notes in his book, they "appear to stand
more or less motionless." The lack of motion, as well as the lack of
bright reflections, rules them out so, why did he even mention
them? Also, Arnold would have realized they were just clouds as he
flew past Mt. Rainier only minutes later.
Menzel's fifth explanation, wave clouds, is comparable to his
first suggestion of "billowing blasts" of snow except that this time
he proposed clouds of water vapor instead of snow. This
explanation was supported by a photograph of such a cloud taken by
a newspaper photographer. However, this explanation, too, fails to
account for the very bright reflections reported by Arnold, for
distinct semi-circular shapes and for the high lateral speed. Again,
Arnold surely would have recognized a cloud as he flew past Mt.
Rainier. In his third and last UFO book (written with Dr. Ernst
Taves in the early 1970's, just before Menzel died), which is
subtitled "The Definitive Explanation of the UFO Phenomenon,"
Menzel again discussed Arnold's sighting and offered his sixth (and
last) explanation: Arnold saw water drops on the window of his
aircraft. To support this explanation Menzel described a
sighting of his own that turned out to be water drops that had
condensed on the outside of the window of an aircraft in which he
was flying. They moved slowly backwards from the front of the
window. They were so close to his eyes as he looked out the
window that they were out of focus and he thought they were distant
objects moving at a great speed until, after a few seconds, he
refocused his eyes and discovered what they were. In comparing
his "sighting" with Arnold's Menzel writes: "I cannot, of course,
say definitely that what Arnold saw were merely raindrops on the
window of this plane. He would doubtless insist that there was no
rain at the altitude at which he was flying. But many queer things
happen at different levels in the earth's atmosphere."
Although no one would argue with Menzel's claim that "queer
things" happen at different levels of the atmosphere, this fact is
irrelevant. Had Menzel bothered to carefully read Arnold's report
to the Air Force he would have seen Arnold's statement that he
turned his plane sideways and viewed the objects through an open
window to be sure that he was getting no reflections from window
glass. (Fortunately Menzel did not propose water drops on Arnold's
eyes!)
THE PROSPECTOR'S SIGHTING AND ANALYSIS
As fate would have it, a second witness saw the same objects as
Arnold just as Arnold was losing sight of them near Mt. Adams.
(Dr. Hynek evidently was not aware of this because he indicated in
his analysis of the Arnold sighting that there were no other
witnesses.)
In the latter half of August the Air Force received an unsolicited
letter (12) dated August 20, 1947, which reads as follows (the
errors in the original letter are preserved):
***** Sir. Saw in the portland paper a short time ago in
regards to an article in regards to the so called flying disc having
any basis in fact. I can say am a prospector and was in the Mt
Adams district on June 24th the day Kenneth Arnold of Boise
Idaho claims he saw a formation of flying disc. And i saw the
same flying objects at about the same time. Having a telescope with
me at the time i can asure you they are real and noting like them I
ever saw before they did not pass verry high over where I was
standing at the the time. plobly 1000 ft. they were Round about 30
foot in dimater tapering sharply to a point in the head and in an
oval shape. with a bright top surface. I did not hear any noise as
you would from a plane. But there was an object in the tail end
looked like a big hand of a clock shifting from side to side like a big
magenet. There speed as far as i know seemed to be greater than
anything I ever saw. Last view I got of the objects they were
standing on edge Banking in a Cloud.
Yours Respectfully
(Fred Johnson)
******* (Note: the Blue Book file page which contains this letter
is labelled "A TRUE COPY" that was authenticated by Lt. Col.
Donald Springer. I assume that the errors in the above letter were in
the original letter and were not simply errors in copying.)
At this time during the summer of 1947 the FBI was actively
investigating sightings, at the request of the Army Air Force, to
determine whether or not any such reports could be part of
subversive activities carried on by enemies of the United States.
(The FBI ended these investigations, having found no evidence of
subversion, in the fall of 1947.) Therefore, at the request of the
Air Force, an FBI agent interviewed Mr. Johnson. He sent a copy of
his report to FBI headquarters in Washington, DC, where a copy
was found filed with other reports labelled "REPORTS OF
FLYING DISCS, SECURITY MATTER -X." (Note: these are the
real X- Files!) These reports were discovered when the FBI
responded to a Freedom of Information Act request made in 1976
for any documents concerning flying saucers, UFOs, etc. The FBI
found well over 1,000 pages of material relating to the Air Force
investigation of UFOs, internal memoranda and sightings reported
to FBI. The FBI report on Johnson's sighting (13) reads as follows
(I have emphasized important statements):
*******
(Fred Johnson, resident of) First Avenue, Portland (Oregon),
reported without consulting any records that on June 24, 1947,
while prospecting at a point in the Cascade Mountains
approximately five thousand feet from sea level, during the afternoon
he noticed a reflection, looked up, and saw a disc proceeding in a
southeasterly direction. Immediately upon sighting this object he
placed his telescope to his eye and observed the disc for
approximately forty-five to sixty seconds. He remarked that it is
possible for him to pick up an object at a distance of ten miles with
his telescope. At the time the disc was sighted by Johnson it was
banking in the sun, and he observed five or six similar objects but
only concentrated on one. He related that they did not fly in any
particular formation and that he would estimate their height to be
about one thousand feet from where he was standing. He said the
object was about thirty feet in diameter and appeared to have a tail.
It made no noise.
According to Johnson he remained in the vicinity of the
Cascades for several days and then returned to Portland and noted
an article in the local paper which stated in effect that a man in
Boise, Idaho, had sighted a similar object but that authorities had
disclaimed any knowledge of such an object. He said he
communicated with the Army for the sole purpose of attempting to
add credence to the story furnished by the man in Boise.
Johnson also related that on the occasion of his sighting the
objects on June 24, 1947 he had in his possession a combination
compass and watch. He noted particularly that immediately before
he sighted the disc the compass acted very peculiar, the hand waving
from one side to the other, but that this condition corrected itself
immediately after the discs had passed out of sight.
Informant appeared to be a very reliable individual who
advised that he had been a prospector in the states of Montana,
Washington and Oregon for the past forty years.
*******
Mr. Johnson's letter to the Air Force indicates that he was in the
right area at the right time to see the objects which Arnold
reported. Johnson, just as Arnold had, reported that his attention
was attracted to them by a reflection, presumably a flash of light on
the rocks he was examining. He reported only five or six, but it is
likely that he missed seeing the others as he concentrated on his
telescopic view of a single one. (Also, he was recalling the event
almost two months after it occurred, so he may well have forgotten
some details, such as the exact number of objects.) Adding his
estimated distance of the objects above him, 1,000 ft, to his
estimated altitude, 5,000 ft, yields an altitude for the UFOs, about
6,000 ft, which is consistent with the altitude indicated by Arnold's
claim that they were traveling "in and out" of the mountain peaks
south of Mt. Rainier.
Johnson claimed that he watched one disc for 45 to 60
seconds. Assuming that they were traveling at the speed calculated
previously, about 1,700 mph, in 45 seconds they would travel
about 20 miles. Although it may have been possible that Johnson
could see the objects over a distance of 20 miles from his location,
it seems more likely that he saw them for less time. However, even
if it were only for 30 seconds with his telescope, we may assume
that he was able to discern many details that Arnold couldn't see,
such as the point on the front and the "tail" waving side to side
"like a big magenet" in the rear. (Here I presume Johnson is
comparing it with the magnetic needle in a compass which swings
left and right before reaching equilibrium.) He claimed that the
objects were "round" and also "oval," thus generally agreeing with
Arnold's description of nearly round objects (certainly they they
weren't square or triangular or T shaped) and he estimated that they
were 30 ft in diameter, a value that is smaller than Arnold's estimate
and smaller than the previously calculated value, suggesting that
Johnson underestimated the size. He also stated that the speed was
"greater than anything I ever saw", which is consistent with the
speed calculated from Arnold's sighting. He heard no noise. He
observed that while the objects were in sight the needle of his
compass waved from side to side. The waving stopped after the
objects were out of sight.
The last statement in Johnson's letter provides important
confirmation of Arnold's claim that he was able to see flashes of
sunlight reflected from the objects. In the previous discussion of
Arnold's sighting I pointed out that for the objects to reflect sun
toward Arnold it would be necessary for some portion of each
shiny object to tilt at least to an angle of about 450. This amount
of tilt is supported by Johnson's claim that when he last saw the
objects they were "standing on edge" while "banking in a cloud."
Aside from the apparent confirmation of Arnold's sighting,
Johnson's sighting is unique as being the first to include a report of
a physical effect during sighting (the apparent effect on the needle
of his compass).
Dr. Hynek, in reviewing all the sightings for Project Grudge in
1949, did not offer an explanation for this sighting. Dr. Menzel,
on the other hand, claimed to have explained it while analyzing the
early sightings for his 1953 book. Menzel began his review of the
sighting by pointing out that it occurred on the same day as
Arnold's. However, he did not tell his readers that it took place at
the same time in the afternoon, nor did he mention that Johnson was
near Mt. Adams at the time and thus in the area where Arnold last
saw the objects (flying past Mt. Adams). Thus the reader of his
book would not have known, as Menzel probably did (Menzel had
access to the Air Force files), that Johnson said he saw the objects
reported by Arnold!
Menzel accepted Johnson's sighting as real (i.e., not a hoax,
not a delusion), but explainable. After pointing out that Johnson
observed the objects through his telescope for nearly a minute
Menzel stated his explanation: "The behavior of the saucers... is
distinctive enough to label them as probably a true sighting.
Bright reflections from patches of clouds were the most likely
cause."
One wonders how Menzel could seriously suggest that
Johnson could fail to realize that the objects were merely clouds
after viewing them for many seconds through a telescope as they
traveled by rapidly and were last seen banking into a cloud.
Menzel also dismissed the wobbling compass effect, arguing
that in his excitement Johnson was not able to hold the compass
steady. This is essentially saying that Johnson, who had about
forty years of prospecting experience at the time, would not realize
that the compass would wobble if he didn't hold it steady.
It is resoundingly not a tribute to science that Dr. Menzel's
explanations carried a considerable weight with the scientific
community. Scarcely anyone complained about his atmospheric
explanations. Instead the book was complimented on bringing a
measure of sanity to the field of flying saucer research. I helped
establish the TRADITION which we live under today, that flying
saucers/ufos, are all mistakes or hoaxes or delusions and certainly
nothing to worry about. Note that TRADITION is important... so
important that you could write a song about it! However, careful
analyses sightings such as these by Kenneth Arnold and Fred
Johnson show that this tradition is like a house built on sand... and it
is crumbling.
REFERENCES
1.) Daniel S. Gilmour, Ed., The Scientific Study of Unidentified
Flying Objects, Chapter 5, Section 1; AFOSR contract study
F44620-67-C-0035; Edward U. Condon, Director, 1968; Bantam
Books Edition, New York, NY, 1969, pg. 481
2.) David. M. Jacobs, The UFO Controversy in America, Indiana
University Press, (1975)
3.) Air Intelligence Report # 100-203-79, "Analysis of Flying
Object Incidents in the U.S.," Directorate of Intelligence (of the
Air Force) and Office of Naval Intelligence, 10 Dec. 1948;
classified TOP SECRET until declassification on March 5, 1985;
available from the Fund for UFO Research
4.) Edward J. Ruppelt, The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects,
Doubleday and Co., Garden City, NJ (1956) and Ace Books, NY
(1956)
5.) Donald Menzel, Flying Saucers, Harvard University Press,
Cambridge, Mass., 1953
6.) Donald Menzel and Lyle Boyd, The World of Flying Saucers,
Doubleday and Co., Garden City, NY, 1963
7.) Donald Menzel and Ernest Taves, The UFO Enigma, Doubleday
and Co., Garden City, NY, 1977 8.) Documents found in the
files of Project Blue Book at the National Archives
9.) Ted Bloecher, The UFO Wave of 1947, (NICAP, 1967)
30.) J. Allen Hynek, The Hynek UFO Report, Dell Pub. co, NY,
1977
10.) Kenneth Arnold, The Coming of the Saucers, privately
published (1953)
11.) Kenneth Arnold, letter to the Army Air Force in the files of
Project Blue Book (National Archives)
12.) Letter found in the files of Project Blue Book
13.) Document found in the files of the FBI released under the
Freedom of Information and Privacy Act
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